Kyle Larson entered the Atlanta race leading all drivers in wins and playoff points. He qualified P6. All he had to do was run a good race and stay out of trouble. Unfortunately, trouble found him when on lap 55, his car lost rear grip and sent him crashing hard into the wall with a smack by Chase Briscoe as his car meandered back down the banking, hidden by smoke.
That’s why playoff and stage points matter. Instead of falling below the cut line, he is in P10 and relatively safe heading to Watkins Glen. He has won 2 of the last 3 races there but was a dismal P25 last year when teammate William Byron dominated and took home the trophy.
Chase Briscoe on the other hand, had few points to fall back on and he now sits in the last position, -21 in P16.
Atlanta was a banner day for Ford and team Penske as they got the win and Ryan Blaney finished P2 and Austin Cindric P10.
It wasn’t a great day for Toyota with none qualifying in the Top 10 and with only Christopher Bell P4 and Tyler Reddick P6 managing a decent finish.
Watkins Glen can be unmerciful; it is a fast track and very technical. Martin Truex, Jr. (P15, -19) has won at the track and will need a stellar effort and bad luck for his competitors as he struggles to advance into Round 2.
Same goes for Harrison Burton, P14, -16. He has few points to rely on and needs to do well or he is toast. He isn’t winning at Bristol.
The driver who appears to be most likely to get out of the bottom four is Brad Keselowski (P13, -1) but he will have to have a lot of bad luck befall his opponents ahead of him and outrace both of them in the form of Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs, who are just barely above the cut line.
Watkins Glen will be both an opportunity and a challenge for several drivers. This Is not a great track for Alex Bowman and while being +27 in points, a bad day at The Glen could erase most of that headed to Bristol. Austin Cindric is also +27 and ranks 11th in average finish since 2021so he needs to improve. Interestingly, Ty Gibbs and Ryan Blaney have a slightly worst average finish that Cindric.
For me, one of the most interesting drivers to watch will be Daniel Suarez. Supposedly a good road course racer, he will have to avoid trouble and have a decent race even though he is +22 in P9. An early exit could drop him into the clutches of Brad Keselowski.
Heading to Bristol the bottom four drivers will make one change but probably not two. As noted, Burton or MTJ would have to have major luck fall their way in addition to outperforming their opponents in a big way. I think Keselowski has a good chance to move up but again needs some racing luck fall his way,
For Atlanta race winner Joey Logano, his average finish at The Glen is P9 just slightly ahead of Chase Elliott. A Top 10 finish might be enough to keep him in the points lead going to Bristol, but he’ll need to keep Kyle Larson and Willian Byron out of victory lane.
(Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images/NASCAR Media)
